Predicting the Golden Globe Winners

Golden Globe Awards - Season 71
I tend to not bother with prediction pieces for the Golden Globes because, well… they’re the Globes. But it’s a good year and I’m feeling up to it this morning so here goes. My track record with predicting this show is spotty compared to the Academy (I did 20-24 with the Oscars last year – my best ever showing) so here’s hoping. Anyway, the only reason I’m watching the show is for Amy Poehler and Tina Fey. And I’m not alone on that sentiment. I mean, just look at them!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

12 Years a Slave should be the winner on paper here but the Globes have a penchant for going with big blockbusters or big studio pictures more often than not so Gravity‘s my pick here.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

This is probably the best set of nominees this category has ever housed but American Hustle will win this in a cakewalk. It has the buzz, the stars, the director and the box office. How can the HFPA resist that combo?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Chiwitel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
  • Idiris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
  • Robert Redford – All is Lost

Again… they go with the big stars so even though Ejiofor deserves it from this group, my guess is that it’s going to be McConaughey taking the stage here. Man’s going to gave a great speech. I can smell it.

 Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
  • Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock – Gravity
  • Judi Dench – Philomena
  • Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
  • Kate Winslet – Labor Day

Cate Blanchett‘s name has already been etched on that award. The others are here for the booze.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

  • Christian Bale – American Hustle
  • Bruce Dern – Nebraska
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Her

The most competitive category of the night also features the leading men of the five Best Comedy/Musical nominees. Not a single filler among them. How often do you get to say that about the Globes? I’m sticking to my guns and betting that the HFPA award DiCaprio‘s wild performance here even though Nebraska has more nominations and Dern is an industry vet.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
  • Amy Adams – American Hustle
  • Julie Delpy – Before Midnight
  • Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
  • Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Another tough one. In a just world, Julie Delpy would win this award for her magnificent work here but we don’t live in a just world. Meryl has already won eight times here but judging by the anemic nomination tally for August: Osage County, it doesn’t look like the HFPA liked the movie all that much. American Hustle, on the other hand, is the nomination leader and Adams was the film’s MVP, at least in my mind. What’s more… she has never won a Globe before and this is her fifth nomination. Five times’ the charm.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
  • Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
  • Daniel Bruhl – Rush
  • Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
  • Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
  • Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Leto‘s won the lions-share of critics prizes and I think that streak extends here as well. He’s likely to take home the Oscar too. It’s not a great performance but it’s a baity one in a year devoid of many baity performances.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
  • Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
  • Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
  • Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
  • June Squibb – Nebraska

The big question here is whether the HFPA will ignore the urge to award Lawrence, who won last year for Silver Linings Playbook. We all know that Nyong’o is the most deserving but she’s a newbie. Will they go with her? I’m going out on a limb and predicting her.

Best Director – Motion Picture
  • Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
  • Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
  • Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
  • David O. Russell – American Hustle
  • Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Although a big part of me says that this is where Cuaron gets rewarded for his achievement, another part of me also tells me this is where the HFPA will make amends and vote for McQueen. Bets on Cuaron.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • Philomena

If 12 Years takes this prize, we’ll know how well its night is going to go. If Hustle takes it, we’ll have a new Best Picture frontrunner. I’m betting on the latter.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
  • LET IT GO – Frozen
  • PLEASE MR. KENNEDY – Inside Llewyn Davis
  • ATLAS – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
  • ORDINARY LOVE – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • SWEETER THAN FICTION – One Chance

One of the biggest tragedies of this season is the ineligibility of “Please Mr. Kennedy” at the Oscars. While it’s tempting to vote for Bono and company or Taylor Swift, the allure of awarding the Coens, T. Bone Burnett and Justin Timberlake with one award will be too much. I’m going with them. It’s also the best song of the bunch.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • All is Lost
  • The Book Thief
  • Gravity
  • Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Will Hans Zimmer be awarded for recycling his older scores or will the Globes go with Steven Price’s integral score for Gravity. I’m predicting Price but I wouldn’t be shocked if Zimmer takes it either.

Best Animated Film

Frozen in an avalanche.

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Blue is the Warmest Color
  • The Great Beauty
  • The Hunt
  • The Past
  • The Wind Rises

I’d like to see The Hunt or The Wind Rises rewarded – afterall, both made my top 10 but Blue is the Warmest Color is the frontrunner here and as such, will likely take the award.

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